Technology Forecast

A Customer Validation Tool
for Emerging Technologies
By Polson Enterprises

Technological Forecasting tools can be used to decide if the market is really ready for an innovative new product (technology). The tools can be used to see how close an existing technology may be to the end of its life, identify competing new technologies still in their infancy, provide insights into possible adoption rates of the new technology (forecast sales), and for many other purposes. This page identifies a few sources that can be used to learn more about technology forecasting tools and processes.

Technology Forecasting is one of several ways of "customer validation"- determining if customers will really buy an innovative new product or not. Prospective customer identification, interviews, prototypes, field testing, focus groups, test marketing, internet polls and many other tools can be used in conjunction with Technology Forecasting to gain confidence in the market. Technology Forecasting should not be used alone to "prove the market", but when used in conjunction with other tools, a greater understanding of the market can be realized. Technological Forecasting is just another blade of the market research pocket knife. The more blades you use, the higher your probability of reaching a correct decision.

The journal, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, covers the basic techniques used to forecast the evolution of technologies and includes studies on hundreds of technologies. Often something in the same industry as your product can be identified. Studies in the same industry are often very helpful.

Although this page focuses on Technology Forecasts, some allied fields of study can also be very relevant when trying to develop a technology forecast. We have included some references in those areas as well.

Technology Forecasting

The resources below are only a very partial list of the materials available, however enough of them are available online or in major libraries to get most people "up and running" and gaining a basic understanding of Technology Forecasting.

Technology Forecast Journals and Papers

Technology Forecasting Books

The first two books listed below are a bit old, but have become the bible of Technological Forecasting. Call numbers are provided for the Oklahoma State University Library (OSU) and the University of Oklahoma Library (OU).

TRIZ as a Technology Forecast Tool

TRIZ is a Russian technique used to improve the efficiency of innovation. Thousands of patents were examined and their basic principles were categorized. The process suggests solutions to design problems. As TRIZ itself evolved, it is now also used to forecast the evolution of new technologies.

TRIZ can be especially helpful in identifying the logical order of steps / evolutions a product may go through. Often, inventors are trying to promote something a few too many steps into the future. Those ideas may well come into service some day, but intermediate steps may be more profitable at this time. The logical progression established by TRIZ researchers focusing on Technology Forecasting can be used by companies trying to sort through several possible alternatives for future research, by helping them identify the most logical successors to current technologies used in their field. For example, MHD (Magnto Hydrodyanmics) may well be the choice for marine propulsion at some time in the future, but several intermediate steps are likely to be taken before the market steps to MHD.

The problem solving approach of TRIZ, can also be used to suggest design improvements in your product, leading to even greater success in the marketplace.

Initial Consumers

Understanding the initial consumers (or businesses in the case of industrial products), who they are, and how fast they might adopt the new technology covers several disciplines. Diffusion, Demand, Cannibalism of existing product lines, Price Elasticity and Psychographics are a few of the areas to be considered. When used along with Tech Forecasts, a greater understanding of how the product may be received by the market can be gained. References we have found useful in the past include:
  1. Diffusion

  2. Forecasting Demand for a New Product
  3. Cannibalism
  4. Funnel Chart
  5. Price Elasticity
  6. Miscellaneous

Technology Readiness Level

Sometimes we get a bit ahead of our selves in taking over the market mentally before our product really works, a quick look at the stages of proving a new technology might be useful.

Technology Readiness Level see Table 1 TRL Descriptions.

Terms, Methods and Tools

A study of Technological Forecasting will encounter topics like:

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